245 killed in Brazil nightclub fire














Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire


Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire


Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire


Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire


Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire


Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire


Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire








STORY HIGHLIGHTS


  • NEW: The fire started "from out of nowhere," a witness says

  • State media report that at least 245 people are dead

  • Some people were trampled in the panic to leave the club, Band News reports

  • The fire started at about 2 a.m. at the Kiss nightclub in Santa Maria




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Sao Paulo, Brazil (CNN) -- A fire swept through a popular nightclub in southern Brazil early Sunday, killing at least 245 people, state media reported, citing police.


The death toll was expected to climb as firefighters continued to pull bodies from the Kiss nightclub in Santa Maria, said Col. Adilomar Silva, the regional coordinator of civil defense.


Most of those killed appeared to have died of smoke inhalation, Silva said. Hundreds are believed to have been injured, though an exact count was not immediately available.


Many people were trampled in the panic to leave the club, one security guard told CNN affiliate Band News.





Deadly blazes: Nightclub tragedies in recent history


The fire started "from out of nowhere" on a stage at the club and quickly spread to the ceiling, witness Jairo Vieira told Band News.


Smoke billowed outside the front of the building as the stench of fire filled the air, said Max Muller, who was riding by on his motorbike when he saw the blaze.


Muller recorded video of a chaotic scene outside the club, which showed emergency crews tending to victims and dazed clubgoers standing in the street. Bodies lay on the ground beside ambulances.


Friends who were inside the club told him that many struggled to find the exits in the dark. Muller, who was not inside the club Sunday morning but has been there twice before, said there were no exit signs over the doors. It is rare to see such signs in Brazilian clubs.


Video from the scene showed firefighters shooting streams of water at the club and shirtless men trying to break down a wall with axes.


Hours later, families and friends searching for information were outside a nearby sporting complex, where bodies were taken for identification, the state-run Agencia Brasil reported.






Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff became teary-eyed as she spoke of the tragedy to reporters in Chile, where she has been attending a regional summit. Rousseff said she was heading to Santa Maria later Sunday.


"The Brazilian people are the ones who need me today," she said. "I want to tell the people of Santa Maria in this time of sadness that we are all together."


The fire started at about 2 a.m. after the acoustic insulation in the Kiss nightclub caught fire, Silva said.


There was a pyrotechnics show going on inside the club when the fire started. Authorities stopped short of blaming it for the blaze, saying the cause was still under investigation.


The incident called to mind a 2003 nightclub fire in Rhode Island where pyrotechnics used by the heavy metal band Great White ignited a blaze that killed more than 90 people.


Pyrotechnics were also involved in a 2004 night club fire in Argentina that killed 194 people and a 2009 explosion at a night club in Russia that left more than 100 dead.


The Kiss nightclub is popular with young people in Santa Maria, drawing between 2,000 and 3,000 people a night on the weekends.


The blaze broke out during a weekend when students were celebrating the end of summer. Students at many Brazilian universities return to school on Monday.


Santa Maria is home to the Federal University of Santa Maria as well as a number of other private universities and colleges.


Shasta Darlington reported from Sao Paulo, Brazil. Marilia Brocchetto reported from Atlanta. CNN's Helena DeMoura and Catherine E. Shoichet contributed to this report.






Read More..

Dozens of stranded Arizona hikers rescued

TUCSON, Ariz. Teams on the ground and in the air rescued dozens of hikers who were stranded in an Arizona canyon after heavy rains flooded trails, authorities said.

Forty to 50 adults and children were stranded Saturday along various sections of Bear Canyon northeast of Tucson as the waters rushed down mountainsides, the Pima County Sheriff's Department said.

A series of 911 calls from hikers sparked a rescue operation involving teams on the ground and in a helicopter,

The first group of hikers was led out of the canyon in the Catalina Mountains in the late afternoon and the last group well after dark, deputy Tom Peine told the Arizona Daily Star.

Some of the hikers said they were stranded when a river swelled to a raging torrent in a matter of minutes.

"I've never seen anything like this," hiker Jesse Boyd told KGUN-TV. "I've gotten caught in rain out here, but nothing to the point where I had to be rescued."

With some hikers, rescuers used a technique that involved roping them together with flotation devices to help get them through high water. Some of the hikers were flown out by helicopter.

"(A) rescue team member was behind us with a hand on that flotation device," Michael Rolland told KVOA-TV after being aided by rescuers. "They strung a rope across, and so we had to grab the rope and sidestep across the river."

Peine said that the hikers might not have realized that rains at higher elevations could cause canyon flooding long after the down pour ends.

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Authorities: 245 Dead in Brazil Nightclub Fire













A deadly fire swept through a crowded nightclub in southern Brazil early Sunday, killing at least 245 people attending a university party and leaving at least 200 injured, police and firefighters said. It appeared to be the deadliest nightclub fire in more than a decade.



Witnesses said that a flare or firework lit by band members may have started the fire.



Police Maj. Cleberson Braida told local news media that the 245 bodies were brought for identification to a gymnasium in the city of Santa Maria, at the southern tip of Brazil near the borders with Argentina and Uruguay



Television images showed smoke pouring out of the Kiss nightclub as shirtless, young male partygoers joined firefighters in wielding axes and sledgehammers, pounding at windows and walls to break through to those trapped inside. Teenagers sprinted from the scene desperately trying to find help — others carried injured and burned friends away in their arms.



"There was so much smoke and fire, it was complete panic and it took a long time for people to get out, there were so many dead," survivor Luana Santos Silva told the Globo TV network.



Silva added that firefighters and ambulances responded quickly after the fire broke out, but that it spread too fast inside the packed club for them to help.



Michele Pereira, another survivor, told the Folha de S. Paulo newspaper that she was near the stage and that the fire broke out after band members lit flares.






Germano Roratto/AFP/Getty Images








"The band that was onstage began to use flares and, suddenly, they stopped the show and pointed them upward. At that point the ceiling caught fire. It was really weak but in a matter of seconds it spread," Pereira said.



Civil Police and regional government spokesman Marcelo Arigoni told Radio Gaucha earlier that the total number of victims is still unclear and there may be hundreds injured. Officials earlier said 180 were killed.



Rodrigo Moura, identified by the newspaper Diario de Santa Maria as a security guard at the club, said it was at its maximum capacity of between 1,000 and 2,000, and partygoers were pushing and shoving to escape.



Ezekiel Corte Real, 23, was quoted by the paper as saying that he helped people to escape. "I just got out because I'm very strong," he said.



The fire led President Dilma Roussef to cancel a series of meetings she had scheduled at a summit of Latin American and European leaders in Chile's capital of Santiago, and was headed to Santa Maria, according to the Brazilian foreign ministry.



"It is a tragedy for all of us. I am not going to continue in the meeting (in Chile) for very clear reasons," she said.



"Sad Sunday", tweeted Tarso Genro, the governor of the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul. He said all possible action was being taken and that he would be in the city later in the day.



Santa Maria is a major university city with a population of around a quarter of a million.



A welding accident reportedly set off a Dec. 25, 2000, fire at a club in Luoyang, China, killing 309.



At least 194 people died at an overcrowded working-class nightclub in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in 2004. Seven members the band were sentenced to prison for setting off the blaze.



A blaze at the Lame Horse nightclub in Perm, Russia, broke out on Dec. 5, 2009, when an indoor fireworks display ignited a plastic ceiling decorated with branches, killing 152



A nightclub fire in the U.S. state of Rhode Island in 2003 killed 100 people after pyrotechnics used as a stage prop by the 1980s rock band Great White set ablaze cheap soundproofing foam on the walls and ceiling.



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Can sanctions deter North Korea?


























Kim Jong Un and his military


Kim Jong Un and his military


Kim Jong Un and his military


Kim Jong Un and his military


Kim Jong Un and his military


Kim Jong Un and his military


Kim Jong Un and his military


Kim Jong Un and his military


Kim Jong Un and his military


Kim Jong Un and his military


Kim Jong Un and his military


Kim Jong Un and his military


Kim Jong Un and his military


Kim Jong Un and his military


Kim Jong Un and his military


Kim Jong Un and his military


Kim Jong Un and his military


Kim Jong Un and his military


Kim Jong Un and his military





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STORY HIGHLIGHTS


  • N. Korea said Thursday it plans to carry out new nuclear test and more long-range rocket launches

  • It said they are part of new phase of confrontation with United States

  • George A. Lopez says North Korea's aim is to be recognized as a 'new nuclear nation by fait accompli'

  • The Security Council sanctions aim to deteriorate and disrupt N. Korea's programs, says Lopez




Editor's note: George A. Lopez holds the Hesburgh Chair in Peace Studies at the Kroc Institute, University of Notre Dame. He is a former member, UN Panel of Experts on DPRK.


Indiana, U.S. (CNN) -- North Korea has responded to new Security Council sanctions condemning its December 12 rocket launch with a declaration that it plans a third nuclear test and more missile launches. Politically, it has made unambiguous that its "aim" is its enemy, the United States.


In this rapid reaction to U.N. sanctions, the young government of Kim Jong Un underscores what Security Council members have long known anticipated from the DPRK. Their end-game is to create a vibrant, integrated missile and nuclear weapons program that will result - as in the cases of Pakistan and India - in their being recognized as a new nuclear nation by fait accompli.


Read more: North Korea says new nuclear test will be part of fight against U.S.


In light of DPRK defiance - and a soon to occur nuclear test - the Security Council's first set of sanctions on North Korea since 2009 may seem absurd and irrelevant. These sanctions will certainly not prevent a new DPRK nuclear test. Rather, the new sanctions resolution mobilizes regional neighbors and global actors to enforce sanctions that can weaken future DPRK programs and actions.










Read more: U.N. Security Council slams North Korea, expands sanctions


The utility, if not the necessity, of these Security Council sanctions are to deteriorate and disrupt the networks that sustain North Korea's programs. Chances of this degradation of DPRK capabilities have increased as the new sanctions both embolden and empower the member states who regularly observe - but do nothing about - suspicious vessels in their adjacent waterways.


The resolution provides new guidance to states regarding ship interdiction, cargo inspections, and the seizure and disposal of prohibited materials. Regarding nuclear and missile development the sanctions expand the list of material banned for trade to DPRK, including high tech, dual-use goods which might aid missile industries.


Read more: South Korean officials: North Korean rocket could hit U.S. mainland


These new measures provide a better structure for more effective sanctions, by naming new entities, such as a bank and trading companies, as well as individuals involved in the illicit financing of prohibited materials, to the sanctions list. To the surprise of many in the diplomatic community - the Council authorizes states to expose and confiscate North Korea's rather mobile "bulk cash." Such currency stocks have been used in many regions to facilitate purchases of luxury goods and other banned items that sustain the DPRK elites.


Finally, the Security Council frees the Sanctions Committee to act more independently and in a timely manner to add entities to the list of sanctioned actors when evidence shows them to be sanctions violators. This is an extensive hunting license for states in the region that can multiply the costs of sanctions to the DPRK over time.


Read more: North Korea's rocket launches cost $1.3 billion


Whatever their initial limitations, the new round of U.N. sanctions serve as a springboard to more robust measures by various regional and global powers which may lead back to serious negotiations with DPRK.


Despite its bluster and short-term action plan, Pyongyang recognizes that the wide space of operation for its policies it assumed it had a week ago, is now closed considerably. To get this kind of slap-down via this Security Council resolution - when the launch was a month ago - predicts that any nuke test or missile launch from Pyongyang will bring a new round of stronger and more targeted sanctions.


Read more: North Korea silences doubters, raises fears with rocket launch


Although dangerous - a new game is on regarding DPRK. Tougher U.N. measures imposed on the North generated a predictable response and likely new, prohibited action. While DPRK may be enraged, these sanctions have the P5 nations, most notably China, newly engaged. A forthcoming test or launch will no doubt increase tensions on both sides.


But this may be precisely the shock needed to restart the Six Party Talks. Without this institutional framework there is little chance of influencing DPRK actions. And in the meantime, the chances of greater degrading of DPRK capabilities via sanctions, are a sensible next best action.


Read more: Huge crowds gather in North Korean capital to celebrate rocket launch


The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of George A. Lopez.






Read More..

PM Lee congratulates Workers' Party on by-election win, calls on people to come together as one






Singapore: Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has congratulated the Workers' Party and MP-elect Ms Lee Li Lian for winning the Punggol East by-election.

He said in a statement issued just after the by-election results were announced that he respects the choice of Punggol East voters.

"Now that the Punggol East by-election is over, we should re-focus on national issues" said Mr Lee in his media release.

He said Singapore has a heavy agenda coming up, such as The White Paper on Population that will soon be debated in Parliament, and Budget 2013 which is less than a month away.

"Let us come together as one people to do our best for Singapore" said PM Lee.

He said the PAP fielded a good candidate and Dr Koh Poh Koon had showed character and courage in contesting this election, and did the PAP proud.

Mr Lee noted that many voters were impressed by Dr Koh's sincerity and commitment. But unfortunately there were not enough of them for him to win, as he went on to thank all those who voted for Dr Koh and the PAP.

- CNA/sf



Read More..

'Anonymous' threatens Justice Department




A screenshot at 3:35 a.m. ET on January 26, 2013, of the homepage of the United States federal sentencing website after it had been hacked by a group that identified itself as "Anonymous."




STORY HIGHLIGHTS


  • NEW: Hackers say they have a file of incriminating information ready to launch

  • NEW: They want to turn over the information, which has been edited, to news outlets

  • Anonymous is believed to be the loosely defined collective of so-called "hacktivists."

  • The threat note said anger over the death of Internet activist Aaron Swartz




(CNN) -- In anger over the recent death of an Internet activist who faced federal charges, hackers claiming to be from the group Anonymous threatened early Saturday to release sensitive information about the U.S. Department of Justice.


They claimed to have one such file on multiple servers ready for immediate release.


The hackers apparently hijacked the website of the U.S. government agency responsible for federal sentencing guidelines, where they posted a message demanding the United States reform its justice system or face incriminating leaks to select news outlets.


The lengthy, eloquently written letter was signed "Anonymous."


The suicide of Internet activist Aaron Swartz on January 11 triggered the posting of the hackers' message to the web address of the United States Sentencing Commission, they said.


His death, which they blamed on the justice system, "crossed a line," the letter said.


How Aaron Swartz helped build the Internet


A YouTube video accompanied the message, and made use of images from Cold War nuclear scenarios and games of strategy. The letter contained nuclear metaphors to refer to chunks of embarrassing information.


The hackers said they have obtained "enough fissile material for multiple warheads," which it would launch against the justice department and "its associated executive branches."


'Anonymous' threatens Westboro Baptist


It gave the "warheads" the names of U.S. Supreme Court justices, such as Thomas.Warhead1 after justice Clarence Thomas or Ginsburg.Warhead1 after justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg.


Anonymous accused the FBI of infiltrating its ranks and claimed the federal government is applying "highly disproportionate sentencing" to ruin the lives of some of its members.


Swartz, 26, was facing federal computer fraud charges and could have served 35 years in prison. Anonymous said he "was killed," because he "faced an impossible choice."


His family has issued a statement saying that federal charges filed over allegations that he stole millions of online documents contributed to Swartz's decision to take his own life. The files were mostly scholarly papers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.


Opinion: Why the Net grieves Aaron Swartz


Swartz's suicide has inspired a flurry of online tributes and mobilized Anonymous, the loosely defined collective of so-called "hacktivists" who oppose attempts to limit Internet freedoms. Both Swartz and Anonymous have been stark proponents of open access to information and open-source programming.


A review of a cached version of the USSC.gov website showed the Anonymous message on its homepage since at least 1:40 a.m. ET. Efforts to get to the website were unsuccessful by some by 6 a.m. E.T.


Anonymous also posted an editable version of the website, inviting users to deface it as they pleased. Multiple pages -- not only the home page -- appeared to allow users to alter them.


The "warhead" names appeared as links, most leading to 404 error messages of pages not found, but some leading to pages of raw programming code.


CNN has left multiple messages with the USSC requesting a response to the hack.


The hackers said they chose the sentencing commission's website because of its influence on the doling out of sentences they consider to be unfair.


CNN's Jason Moon and AnneClaire Stapleton contributed to this report






Read More..

Hackers take over gov't website to avenge Aaron Swartz

This screenshot shows the website of the U.S. Sentencing Commission after it was hijacked by the hacker-activist group Anonymous, early Saturday, Jan. 26, 2013, to avenge the death of Aaron Swartz, an Internet activist who committed suicide. The website of the commission, an independent agency of the judicial branch, was replaced with a message warning that when Swartz killed himself two weeks ago "a line was crossed." / AP Photo

WASHINGTON The hacker-activist group Anonymous says it hijacked the website of the U.S. Sentencing Commission to avenge the death of Aaron Swartz, an Internet activist who committed suicide.

The website of the commission, an independent agency of the judicial branch, was taken over early Saturday and replaced with a message warning that when Swartz killed himself two weeks ago "a line was crossed."

The message read in part:

Citizens of the world,
Anonymous has observed for some time now the trajectory of justice in the United States with growing concern. We have marked the departure of this system from the noble ideals in which it was born and enshrined. We have seen the erosion of due process, the dilution of constitutional rights, the usurpation of the rightful authority of courts by the "discretion" or prosecutors. We have seen how the law is wielded less and less to uphold justice, and more and more to exercise control, authority and power in the interests of oppression or personal gain."

The hackers say they've infiltrated several government computer systems and copied secret information that they now threaten to make public.

Family and friends of Swartz, who helped create Reddit and RSS, say he killed himself after he was hounded by federal prosecutors.

Officials say he helped post millions of court documents for free online and that he illegally downloaded millions of academic articles from an online clearinghouse.

By mid-morning Saturday the website was offline.

Read More..

Cops Using More Private Cameras to Nab Suspects













Philadelphia detectives were able to quickly make an arrest in the murder and burning of a female pediatrician by viewing surveillance video of nearby stores and a hospital that captured the suspect entering the doctor's home and later getting into his truck.


In the hours after Dr. Melissa Ketunuti's body was found strangled and burning in her basement, city's Homicide Task Force collected surveillance footage from a coffee shop, drug store and hospital overlooking Ketunuti's block. It was footage taken from Ori Feibush's coffee shop that allowed cops to identify Smith.


The suspect, an exterminator named Jason Smith, soon confessed to detectives, police said.


Lately a range of crimes have been solved by the seemingly ubiquitous security videos maintained by private companies or citizens, and investigators have been able to quickly apprehend suspects by obtaining the video, deftly turning private cameras into effective police resources.








Philadelphia Police Arrest Suspect in Doctor's Killing Watch Video









Pa. Doctor Killing: Person of Interest in Custody Watch Video







Private surveillance cameras have become so pervasive that the face of a suspect who allegedly shot a Bronx, N.Y., cab driver in a botched robbery on Jan. 14 was splashed throughout the media within days because the cabbie had rigged his vehicle with a camera.


The New York Police Department arrested Salvatore Perrone after he was caught on surveillance video recorded near two of three shopkeeper slayings in Brooklyn, N.Y., in November. He has since been charged with murder.


And in Mesa, Ariz., surveillance footage taken in November by resident Mitch Drum showed a man rolling on the ground trying to extinguish flames that had engulfed his shirt, which had caught fire while he was allegedly siphoning gas from a car by Drum's house. The man was arrested.


Though surveillance cameras have been a staple of security since a network of government operated cameras dubbed the "ring of steel" was introduced in London in the early 1990s, police have recently launched programs to partner with more businesses.


In Philadelphia, police have launched a program for businesses to register private cameras with the department. According to the SafeCam website, businesses will only be contacted when there is a criminal incident in the vicinity of the security camera. At that point, police will request a copy of the footage for their investigation.


"Businesses are saying, 'I have a camera at this location, and it may or may not be of use to you. It's a registration to say, 'feel free to call me,'" Sgt. Joseph Green told ABCNews.com






Read More..

Cantor CEO: 'Off the fiscal cliff we go'






Part of complete coverage on















By Ramy Inocencio, for CNN


January 25, 2013 -- Updated 1453 GMT (2253 HKT)









STORY HIGHLIGHTS


  • "U.S. fiscal cliff still coming" in form of failure to raise debt ceiling - Cantor Fitzgerald CEO

  • More than 25% of CEOs feel world economy will get worse in 2013, says PwC survey

  • U.S. House of Representatives passed short-term debt ceiling increase Jan. 23

  • Lutnick: "Dumb lending" caused 2008 credit crisis




Hong Kong (CNN) -- The world thought the U.S. fiscal cliff deadline was December 31, but "the fiscal cliff is (still) coming", says Howard Lutnick, CEO of global financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald.


"You're going to watch the U.S. do crazy, crazy things this year," Lutnick told CNN's Richard Quest at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. "The Republican Party that was elected to control Congress... (is) going to cross their arms and they are not going to raise the debt ceiling ultimately unless they get severe spending cuts, and the Obama administration is not going to give it to them."


If Congress fails to act, the U.S. and the world economy will have a "dreadful" 2013, Lutnick said.


Following this week's PricewaterhouseCoopers survey of global CEO confidence, Lutnick appears to be one of the more than 25% who think the world economy is more likely to deteriorate in 2013.








Despite Lutnick's concerns, on January 23 the Republican-controlled House of Representatives did pass a bill that would allow the U.S. Treasury to borrow new money through mid-May. President Barack Obama has said he would not oppose the proposal if it reaches his desk, although he prefers a long-term debt ceiling increase.


Lutnick adds that to avoid a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, regulators need to actually address issues that caused it.


"What caused the credit crisis was just dumb lending. When you lend money to people who can't pay you back, you go broke."


Looking ahead to 2013, Lutnick says the biggest risk to global growth is the U.S. hitting the debt ceiling -- whether in the short- or long-term.


"Off the fiscal cliff we go. We (the U.S.) are irrational and we are silly... we are dopey."












Part of complete coverage on







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Global policymakers, leading thinkers and key entrepreneurs are gathering in Davos. CNN brings you the latest news, views and musings live.







January 23, 2013 -- Updated 1040 GMT (1840 HKT)



As extreme weather events cost the global economy billions each year, the "neglected" risk of climate change seems to be rising to the top of the agenda, Andrew Steer writes.







January 23, 2013 -- Updated 1342 GMT (2142 HKT)



Economic empowerment offers a win-win scenario for Saudi Arabia and its women, Mounira Jamjoon writes.







January 23, 2013 -- Updated 1154 GMT (1954 HKT)



The recession in Europe is entering its fifth year and unemployment doesn't look like it will be returning to normal levels anytime soon.







January 22, 2013 -- Updated 1324 GMT (2124 HKT)



What has been made clear by current events and financial upheavals since 2008 is that the global economy has become truly that -- global.








The globe's greatest economic minds meet in Davos next week. With financial crises in the U.S. and Europe, CNN asks: What is your economic mood?








Many eurozone countries face dropping employment even as basic costs rise. But not everyone is suffering. Explore our interactive for more.







January 23, 2013 -- Updated 0551 GMT (1351 HKT)



In 2013, the greatest risk of conflict lies in the geopolitical struggle between Japan and China, according to Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group.







January 21, 2013 -- Updated 1502 GMT (2302 HKT)



CNN's Richard Quest explores the topic that will be on every delegate's lips at the World Economic Forum in Davos this year.







January 21, 2013 -- Updated 1500 GMT (2300 HKT)



It was January 25, 2011, when the brisk winds of change from Tahrir Square swept through the Swiss Alpine village of Davos.







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The world's political and business elite will converge on Europe's highest-altitude town for the annual talk-shop that is the World Economic Forum.







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On July 1, 2013 the 27-nation European Union will become 28. But is the Adriatic country ready to join Europe's elite club?







January 22, 2013 -- Updated 1133 GMT (1933 HKT)



The great Davos talking shop is now up and running, with delegates of all levels of importance, shapes and nationalities putting the world to rights.







January 21, 2013 -- Updated 1404 GMT (2204 HKT)



After five years in crisis the eurozone's new leader has emerged. With influence reaching from the Arctic Circle to the Mediterranean Sea.

















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US scholar urges dramatic rethink on Taiwan






WASHINGTON: With Beijing growing in strength, a US scholar is calling for a major rethink on Taiwan in which the island would cut its troop numbers in half and rebrand its army as a self-defence force.

The proposal marks a rare break from the conventional view of American and Taiwanese policymakers that the island needs to close the military gap with Beijing, but its author said an opposite course could strengthen Taipei.

Scott Bates, president of the Washington-based Center for National Policy, said the balance was "irretrievably shifting" in China's favor and it was politically and economically unrealistic that Taiwan would commit enough to close the gap.

Instead, Taipei can take the lead by halving the size of its army, rebranding it as a Self-Defence Force in the style of Japan and renouncing any military action on mainland China's soil, he argued.

"If Taiwan were to take a bold step like this, that would change perceptions on the mainland and perhaps win some popular support for the Taiwanese position," said Bates, a former congressional aide.

"If there were a showdown, it might make (Beijing) think twice."

Taiwan should turn the new force into a disaster response team ready to deploy throughout Asia and also highlight the island's democracy through a major initiative that supports civil society across the continent, Bates said.

And instead of waging a battle to preserve a dwindling number of nations' recognition of Taipei instead of Beijing, Taiwan can use its diplomatic resources to seek solutions on Asia's bitter territorial disputes, he said.

The new Taiwanese approach would give the island the moral high ground, winning over global opinion and ensuring that China would appear to be the aggressor if it attacked, he argued.

"Mainland Chinese public opinion is beginning to matter more. The Chinese Communist Party cannot ignore its own people without repercussions," Bates said.

China considers Taiwan to be a territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary. China's defeated nationalists fled to Taiwan after defeat by the communists in 1949, with the island developing into a self-ruling democracy.

The United States switched recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979 but at the same time Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act, which requires Washington to provide the island with means to defend itself.

Bates said that his proposal would complement efforts by Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou, who has sought to ease tensions with China by expanding economic ties, though domestic critics accuse Ma of jeopardising the island's de facto independence.

Bates supported the continuation of the Taiwan Relations Act, saying the island needed a credible deterrent. While cutting its army, Bates called for Taiwan to launch a major upgrade of its air defences and navy to show that any effort to gain supremacy over the island would be costly.

The Taiwan Relations Act enjoys virtually unanimous support in the US Congress, where lawmakers have pressed President Barack Obama to sell to the island new F-16 jets - a step that China strongly opposes.

Bates' ideas, however, are unlikely to win quick support.

Joseph Bosco, a former Pentagon official, sharply criticised the proposal, saying it went against accepted concepts of deterrence and that Taiwan already had the moral high ground.

"Taiwan does not need to disarm unilaterally in order to prove its moral or political legitimacy," Bosco said on Wednesday at an event where Bates presented his proposal.

Bates, who spoke last year at Taiwan's National Defence University and wrote an opinion piece in the Taipei Times, said he wanted to start a debate.

"It doesn't have to be my plan, but there does have to be a strategic rethink," he said.

- AFP



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